Location: Remote, any location globally with availability for calls across multiple time zones

Position Status: Short-term consultancy

Duration: Approximately 20-25 days (exact scope to be confirmed at inception)

Reports To: Director, Global Crisis Analysis

Application Deadline: 18 March

Start Date: Ideally week ending 20 March

About Mercy Corps

Mercy Corps is a leading global organization powered by the belief that a better world is possible. In disaster, in hardship, in more than 40 countries around the world, we partner to put bold solutions into action — helping people triumph over adversity and build stronger communities from within. Now, and for the future.

The Program / Department / Team

The Crisis Analysis Team combines traditional research methods with powerful data science tools to help organizations navigate complex, high-risk environments impacted by climate change and conflict. Through trend monitoring, risk forecasting and deep-dive thematic analysis, we help ensure that donor investments create measurable, sustainable impact through coordinated and context-sensitive interventions – even in the most challenging operational environments. Our analysis is grounded in local contexts and conflicts, helping humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding actors design solutions to better equip communities facing complex crises. As a part of Mercy Corps, we combine independent analysis with direct programmatic experience, allowing us to provide actionable and targeted messages that strengthen sector-wide responses.

This consultancy is part of a project examining the global secondary economic impacts of the Iran war, specifically how conflict-generated shocks travel through commodity, financial, remittance and funding systems to affect population needs and humanitarian, development and peacebuilding programming across the Middle East, South Asia and East Africa.

The Position

We are seeking an experienced analyst who combines applied political economy expertise with strong quantitative skills – specifically experience in price transmission modelling and/or econometric analysis – and who can translate complex economic findings into clear, operationally useful guidance for HDP practitioners.

The analyst will design the economic transmission pathway framework, build and run commodity price transmission models across three conflict scenarios, conduct structured key informant interviews (including with country office staff) and produce all written outputs – including country and sub-regional snapshots, a cross-cutting funding architecture analysis, and scenario-differentiated HDP recommendations. Compelling visualisations are a key component of this report; excellent GIS and data visualisation skills are a strong asset; however, support can be provided for this aspect of the report for a strong candidate without these skills.

The exact scope, including the number and selection of case geographies, will be confirmed at inception. Candidates should be comfortable with a degree of flexibility at contracting stage.

While requiring a rigorous analytical framework, the report should present the findings in a clear and accessible way for a non-technical audience that includes donors, policymakers and operational HDP actors.

Essential Responsibilities

ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND SCENARIO DESIGN

• Design the economic transmission pathway framework, mapping how US-Iran conflict shocks travel through key channels (oil supply and Hormuz disruption; food and commodity prices; remittances and labour markets; sanctions and financial systems; global HDP funding architecture) to HDP-relevant outcomes across the Middle East, South Asia and East Africa.
• Develop a scenario architecture describing three distinct political-economic states with qualitatively different HDP implications.
• Produce an inception note confirming the report outline, analytical approach, scenario definitions, case selection rationale and key informant engagement plan and planned visualisations.

PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELLING AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS

• Design and run commodity price transmission models tracing the causal pathway from Hormuz disruption and oil price shocks through to food basket prices across all three scenarios. Models should be calibrated against comparable historical episodes.
• Produce scenario-based food price forecasts with appropriate confidence intervals, using established price transmission frameworks applied to open-source datasets (e.g. FEWS NET, WFP VAM, World Bank, IMF).
• As relevant, produce cash transfer value erosion estimates per case geography under each scenario, formatted for direct use by HDP programme teams reviewing modality and transfer value decisions.
• Document modelling methodology, data sources and limitations clearly for integration into the methodology section of the report.
• Produce data visualisations (e.g. transmission pathway diagrams, global transmission exposure maps, scenario price impact heat maps, cash value erosion charts, shock sequencing timelines, scenario comparison matrix). Strong candidates without data visualisation expertise will be considered, but must be prepared to work closely with GIS/data visualisation/designer counterparts, providing required data and reviews.

COUNTRY AND SUB-REGIONAL SNAPSHOTS

• Produce analytical snapshots for each confirmed case geography – likely to include Iraq, Lebanon, Horn of Africa (Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia) and South Asia (Afghanistan and Pakistan), though final selection will be confirmed at inception. Each snapshot covers the primary transmission channels most relevant to that context, differential exposure across the three scenarios, and specific operational implications for HDP actors.
• Conduct structured key informant interviews, including with Mercy Corps country office staff prior to drafting each snapshot. KI input is the primary source on local market dynamics, informal economy behaviour and operational context. The analyst synthesises and quality-assures KI input rather than relying on extended desk research.
• Produce case country scorecard visualisations and c vulnerability maps, or brief GIS/visualisation/design team members on what each visual output for the snapshot needs to communicate analytically, provide required data and review draft visualisations for accuracy.

FUNDING ARCHITECTURE AND HDP RECOMMENDATIONS

• Produce a cross-cutting section on the global HDP funding architecture under conflict conditions – covering how the conflict intersects with existing pressures across US bilateral, European multilateral and Gulf state donor categories. This should also be integrated into the scenario framework.
• Draft scenario-differentiated recommendations across three functional areas: programme design and modality choices; resource allocation and geographic prioritisation; funding and advocacy. Recommendations must be specific enough for an HDP actor to act on under each scenario.
• Draft a concise executive summary of approximately 2 pages suitable for senior HDP leadership and donor audiences.

SAFEGUARDING RESPONSIBILITIES

• Actively learn about safeguarding and integrate it into their work.
• Practice the values of Mercy Corps including respecting the dignity and well-being of participants and fellow team members.
• Encourage openness and communication; report any concerns using available reporting mechanisms.

Minimum Qualifications and Transferable Skills

• Advanced degree in economics, political economy, international development or a related field, or equivalent professional experience, with a strong applied quantitative component.
• Demonstrable experience with price transmission modelling, econometric analysis or equivalent quantitative methods applied to real-world fragile or conflict-affected contexts. Candidates should be prepared to describe their modelling approach and tools in their cover note.
• Experience producing applied political economy analysis in conflict or fragile state contexts across the Middle East, South Asia or East Africa — with a track record of translating complex findings into key messages and recommendations for non-technical audiences.
• Familiarity with open-source economic, humanitarian and development datasets and platforms, including FEWS NET, WFP VAM, World Bank, IMF, and an understanding of their methodological limitations.
• Track record of producing publication-quality written analysis under tight timelines, maintaining analytical coherence across complex multi-geography scope.
• Experience conducting structured key informant interviews and synthesising qualitative inputs into quantitative analytical products.

Desirable:

• Country or sub-regional expertise in the Middle East, the Horn of Africa or South Asia.
• Experience in producing quality GIS and data visualisations to communicate analysis findings and improve evidence uptake by audiences.
• Knowledge of US sanctions architecture and its effects on regional trade, financial and banking systems.
• Experience with oil market economics, food systems analysis or commodity price dynamics specifically.
• Familiarity with the global HDP funding architecture and major donor behaviour under conflict and austerity conditions.

Success Factors

The successful candidate combines genuine technical depth in price transmission modelling and applied political economy with the writing and communication skills to make complex, multi-geography analysis useful to HDP practitioners. This is not a pure analytical role – the ability to write clearly for a non-technical audience and translate modelling outputs into operational recommendations is as important as the quantitative capability. The candidate must be comfortable working with a range of internal teams, including providing clear analytical direction to visualisation counterparts on what each output needs to show without crossing into production decisions.

Living Conditions / Environmental Conditions

Fully remote. Regular video calls with the project team and country office key informants across multiple time zones. No travel required.

Supervisory Responsibility

None.

Accountability

Reports Directly To: Director, Global Crisis Analysis

Works Directly With: Country Office Key Informants; Data Viz/GIS/Designers; Editor

Accountability to Participants and Stakeholders

Mercy Corps team members are expected to support all efforts toward accountability, specifically to our program participants, community partners, other stakeholders, and to international standards guiding international relief and development work. We are committed to actively engaging communities as equal partners in the design, monitoring and evaluation of our field projects.

Ongoing Learning

In support of our belief that learning organizations are more effective, efficient and relevant to the communities we serve, we empower all team members to dedicate 5% of their time to learning activities that further their personal and/or professional growth and development.

Team Engagement and Effectiveness

Achieving our mission starts with how we build our team and collaborate. By bringing together individuals with a variety of experiences, backgrounds, and perspectives, we strengthen our ability to solve complex challenges and drive innovation. We foster a culture of trust and respect, where every team member is valued for their contributions, empowered to reach their full potential, and motivated to do their best work.

Equal Employment Opportunity

Mercy Corps is an equal opportunity employer committed to providing equal employment opportunities to all employees and qualified applicants for employment without regard to race, color, sex, sexual orientation, religion or belief, national origin, age, disability, marital status, veteran status, or any other characteristics protected under applicable law.

Safeguarding and Ethics

Mercy Corps is committed to ensuring that all individuals we come into contact with through our work, whether team members, community members, program participants or others, are treated with respect and dignity. We will not tolerate child abuse, sexual exploitation, abuse, or harassment by or of our team members. Team members are expected to conduct themselves in a professional manner, respect local laws and customs, and adhere to Mercy Corps Code of Conduct Policies and values at all times.

How to Apply

Please submit a CV, a cover note of no more than one page describing your quantitative modelling experience and your approach to producing operational recommendations from applied political economy analysis, and a writing sample of directly relevant analytical work demonstrating both technical rigor and clear communication for a non-technical audience. Candidates should describe their price transmission modelling experience and tools in their cover note.